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National Weather Service 2023 Hurricane Season Outlook

National Weather Service 2023 Hurricane Season Outlook

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In preparation for the approaching Hurricane Season, which begins on June 1, 2023, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and National Hurricane Center (NHC) have released the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook. Forecasters indicated that a near-normal season is most likely (40%), with lower but equal probabilities (30%) that the season could be above or below average.

There is an expectation that the season will be less active than in previous years, however, competing factors have added greater uncertainty to the seasonal forecast. Among these factors are:

  • High confidence in the development of El Niño conditions in the eastern Pacific Ocean, which typically suppress Atlantic hurricane activity; and
  • Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, which create more energy to fuel storm development. 

It should be noted that last year's hurricane season was near-average from a statistical perspective; however, it will be remembered as one of Florida's most costly (and deadliest) on record.


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